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January 14, 2010..Our analysis (by Bob Morrow and K.C Grainger) now suggests that the large industrial stock market in the US, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials have reached our upside targets based upon technical, cyclical and several fundamental gauges. Yes, in our analysis, the overall top is about in.If our analysis is correct, a decline of over 1000 points in the Dow Industrials should be forthcoming. Our view is that there has been a tremendous amount of manipulation and artificial methods used to keep the market going up. We do not believe that it can be successful over the longer term and feel that it will only lead to greater corrections later. However, that does not indicate that the top is in for all stocks, it does not. Many stocks in Canada and the US are so cheap that they are literally being "given away" at their current prices.
Several of our proprietary technical indicators have confirmed the top. While the market could meander in this topping area for a while, our analysis suggests that it may be an ideal time to take some money out of some winners and look for stocks that are severely undervalued. Be defensively offensive! Bob Morrow's indicators are based upon Fourier mathematics while K.C Grainger's technical indicators study movements vis a vis time periods, insider analysis and other indicators such as the market to GDP. Both Bob and K.C.'s indicators suggest that the long term bull market in most commodities will continue; that is not positive for the industrial stock market. As well, the longer term cyclical indicators suggest that the within[b] the next twelve months, we will enter a very difficult economic period. Yes, the economy could go down again.
Written by canam on 2010-01-13 23:41 in CanAm Research
My view on Gold by Ray Langevin, 29 December...Sixteen days ago, gold was trading at 1224 $, while the MACD, RSI and bullish consensus were at maximum levels. Even some people who refuse to even look at technical aspects of the market were calling for an exponential rise. (It’s true, they have never really seen one). It’s no wonder that some kind of correction was in sight. We had about 145 $ down in a short period and we are still there. The market indicators and bullish sentiment all came down with the market. Same for silver. Spare me the explanation that the dollar is up a notch (4 points on the index). Whatever the level, I wouldn’t touch it with a hundred foot flag pole over the longer run and I’m not the only analyst sharing this view. Even China is!... Every expert is now talking about a long correction in precious metals which they had forecasted years ago. [b]
What is becoming very interesting suddenly, and that few people have ever noticed, is the fact that gold has always made a top out of a double top formation and come down slowly after a sizeable distribution. This time around, I challenge anyone to show me such a behavior. Notice that in a double top, we come back up 50 to 100% of the fall, sometimes even make a new high and then follows the fall. We have nothing of that right now. Instead, we have a rise of about 250$, a reach of the 1224 $ level, and a move straight down with accumulation now taking place. On top of that, 1224 is short of the price objective for the current up leg.
Written by canam on 2009-12-30 18:24 in Analyst Articles
December 26, 2009, Not much has changed in my opinion. The bull market in stocks should continue with the same risk of 10% to 15% at anytime here. But as always, it depends on which stocks one owns. As for rates, the US Fed will try to keep rates down but it is running out of time. Rates could rise sharply in the next year-but later we think. My longer term charts, cycles and fundamental percentages analysis still indicate that sometime next year, things may begin to come unglued. I say that out of fear with the fervent hope that I will be wrong! All you have to do and see that Geithner and Bernanke are in charge in the footsteps of that "genius" Greenspan and you can safely assume that the economic outlook is not bright. Between 2010 and 2014, there is a very strong possibility that economy will make the present situation look pleasent! They were able to band aid over the spending and budget fiascos but that game is almost over. In essence, our indications are suggesting that North America may be in trouble-later on-big trouble!!!!???? Commodities? Our analysis still indicates that we are in a long term bull market in many commodities-sadly for the consumer, oil!. That movement to hard assets where people such as those in India and China want hard assets rather than "paper" such as US Treasury obligations in which they support the US DEFICIT WHICH IS RUNNING AT ABOUT $5 BILLION PER DAY! PER DAY-PER DAY!-PER DAY!-PAR JOUR!-PAR JOUR!
GOLD? Our analysis has said FOR OVER A MONTH based upon our "price movement occuring within a too short period of time" that it should correct down to our target bottom from the $1050 to $970 or so which is our worse case scenario. We should be seeing a great deal of backing and filling in many of the junior mining stocks that we are following and want to congratulate the holders of Freewest that have accepted the takeover offer of NYSE listed Cliffs. We have recomended Freewest for years and advised accepting Cliff's offer. My analysis remains very positive on gold and the gold stocks. Remember, accumulate on weakness, don't chase them and push them up.
Written by canam on 2009-12-25 21:45 in Analyst Articles
click: http://www.counterpunch.com/whitney12212009.html
Written by canam on 2009-12-23 14:30 in Analyst Articles
Several months ago, US Congressman Ron Paul, who is also a medical doctor and graduate of the prestigious Duke University Medical School asked Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke a question concerning the possible rise in the price of gold bullion. Bernanke, the Harvard educated "genius", replied rudely to Congressman Paul that the central banks would commence selling their bullion. Oh yeah?? Just the opposite happened-the central banks have bought any large amounts of gold that have become available. Such as the Central Bank of India's recent buying of 200 tonnes!!! Bernanke is clueless and should do the public a favor and go back to academia where he can do less harm. After all the damage done under the stewardship of Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, one would hope that the US could find an economic leader who understands the real world of business and the economy. We would suggest someone who owns a business, has met a payroll and has a true feel and knowledge of the economy.
The esteemed academics of Wall Street and Washington have done incalculable damage. More fitting their talent would be working for Ringling Brothers Barnum and Bailey Circus as side show clowns. "Ladies and gentlemen, step right up and let me tell you what were gonna do."
Written by canam on 2009-12-03 14:21 in Analyst Articles