An investment site focusing on high risk stocks that have declined to low prices that merit in-depth analysis and perhaps investment consideration.
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We have received emails from clients asking why we are following Senetek (symbol: snkty) after so many years of its price declines. Well, the answer is, that in our opinion, it is undervalued. And at current prices truly is selling at prices substantially below what is should be selling at. We judge stocks on the basis of value and look for opportunities to accumulate shares on weakness. Perhaps one would prefer to follow the recommendations of the esteemed Wall Street analysts. In the last 52 weeks, let’s see what the fools were recommending. We can begin with the most recommended stock of the year 2000 and 2001 and still a prime Wall Street recommendation, General Electric. It was at $38 last year, today it’s at $16 a share. Oh, by the way, when it was the most recommended stock by Wall Street in 2001, it was selling at over $55 a share. Or perhaps we should review that financial institution and brokerage house that needed a bailout to remain in business, Citicorp last year at over $29 a share, today at $7 !! One can see that these are the types of stocks that attract research coverage. The Wall Street clowns seem incapable of finding undervalued stocks. And these Wall Street idiots discourage investing in small cap stocks that are not followed by their firms. So spare us the email complaints.
We have been accumulating Senetek for the last year. The fundamentals are now very attractive. What the company needs is not an improvement in its fundamentals, but simply the task of attracting one or two large institutional investors. It should not prove difficult, but in the current market it is more challenging than previously. But here is a key point that we wish to make: AS INCREDIBLE AS IT MAY SEEM, IT IS NOT WISE TO HAVE ANY INSTITUTIONS INVESTING IN SENETEK AT CURRENT PRICES. YOU WANT THE INSTITUTIONS TO COME IN WHEN THE STOCK PRICE IS SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER SUCH AS AT ABOVE THE $4 LEVEL. A company should not have institutional investors represented at the low price levels. The lowest price basis investors should be the small private investor. They should have the lowest cost, institutions should have the higher cost basis.
Written by canam on 2009-01-05 20:18 in Analyst Articles
Our technical, fundamental and cyclical analysis indicates that we are still finishing forming the bottom in the stock market. We can see an upside of between 15% to 25% over the next 12 months. The biggest positive is the hundreds of billions of dollars being put into the market by the governments which will eventually-we feel-effect the stock markets positively.
If we include the fact that interest rates are so artificially low it does allow for more upside. However, later our analysis suggests that rates will be dramatically higher putting pressure on the equities markets. Over the long term, our research only allows for moderate upside for the overall stock markets. However, if you own the right stocks, the returns can be superb....The right stocks!....Two years ago the late John Templeton said in an interview that he thought that the "stock market will probably do very little for the next ten years." We agree, it will be rather difficult for many years.
Written by canam on 2008-12-22 13:58 in Analyst Articles
Gold Stock Panic Ends by Adam Hamilton, December19, 2008....
The Great Stock Panic of 2008 was so mercilessly brutal that no sector escaped its ravages. Unfortunately gold stocks, despite their history of performing really well during general-stock bears, also succumbed to the universal panic selling. Extreme fear snowballed without relent until even long-time gold-stock enthusiasts capitulated and dumped their shares in disgust..This perfect storm of fear spawned unprecedented carnage in the flagship HUI gold-stock index. From its all-time high of mid-March 2008, the HUI had plunged an unbelievable 70.6% by its panic low in late October! Yet even this sickening stat doesn't do this panic justice. In October alone with the general-stock panic, the HUI plummeted 51.8% in a matter of weeks before fear finally climaxed and it carved a bottom.
Written by canam on 2008-12-19 17:03 in Analyst Articles
We want to note that Gretchen Morgenson was awarded the prestigious Pulitzer Prize for her reporting. New York Times Topics: by Gretchen Morgenson, "They’re Shocked, Shocked, About the Mess," October 28, 2008....My hypocrisy meter konked out last week. It started acting up on Wednesday, spinning wildly as executives from the nation’s leading credit-rating agencies testified before Congress about their nonroles in the credit crisis. Leaders from Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch all said that their firms’ inability to see problems in toxic mortgages was an honest mistake. The woefully inaccurate ratings that have cost investors billions were not, mind you, a result of issuers paying ratings agencies handsomely for their rosy opinions. Still, there were those pesky e-mail messages cited by the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform that showed two analysts at S.& P. speaking frankly about a deal they were being asked to examine. “Btw — that deal is ridiculous,” one wrote. “We should not be rating it.”“We rate every deal,” came the response. “It could be structured by cows and we would rate it.”Asked to explain the cow reference, Deven Sharma, S.& P.’s president, told the committee: “The unfortunate and inappropriate language used in these e-mails does not reflect the core culture of the organization I am committed to leading.”
Maybe so, but that was a lot for my malarkey meter to absorb.Then, on Thursday, my meter sputtered as Alan Greenspan, former “Maestro” of the Federal Reserve, testified before the same Congressional questioners. He defended years of regulatory inaction in the face of predatory lending and said he was “in a state of shocked disbelief” that financial institutions did not rein themselves in when there were billions to be made by relaxing their lending practices and trafficking in exotic derivatives. Mr. Greenspan was shocked, shocked to find that there was gambling going on in the casino.
Written by canam on 2008-12-16 13:47 in Analyst Articles
December 8, 2008..THE BOTTOM IS IN-WE THINK! Our analysis has been suggesting for a month that the large industrial stock market such as the Dow and S&P 500 is finishing its bottom. Last July 3, in my Midsummer Night’s Scream, I forecast that we were going to see the largest stock market selloff in value terms in history, although I thought that we had perhaps another 6 months to 9 months before the enormous selloff. . I hate to be negative on the market overall since it makes the fact that concurrently with any overall market level, there are numerous stocks that are so cheap that they are literally being “given away” at their prices. The following was included in my forecast as it was written on July 3, 2008: But Before I Begin... Over the longer term, I am preparing myself for the largest decline in asset values that the markets have ever seen; I fervently hope that I am wrong. I want to say that because of the problems that have not been addressed, such as uncontrolled government spending, enormous deficits, corporate chicanery such as the brokerage/banking sub-prime criminality, incredible unfunded pension liabilities and far too many other factors, I expect the largest decline in overall asset values and largest stock market decline in history in value of losses. I have always expected it, sooner or later, but felt that it could be “put off" for many years. I now expect it to be sooner rather than later. I truly hope that I am proven wrong. We brought this all on ourselves. But as for today, Thursday July 3, 2008…my analysis suggests that the stock market is making another bottom---again, for now”……. THAT IS WHAT I THOUGHT AT THE TIME.
That was it and the brutal decline happened sooner than I had expected in September and the percentage declines have already hit the “largest declines in overall asset values and largest stock market decline in history in value of losses.” Well, we have seen the losses in many stocks and assets. Some real estate will continue to suffer through brutal percentage losses. And the same intrinsic reasons that caused and contributed to the enormous decline still exist. Unfortunately, little has changed. [b]While many stocks can be bought for outstanding capital gains potential, the “overall stock market” does not offer the large percentage upside potential that it offered in the past such as in 1990 when the Dow moved from approximately the 3000 Dow to the 10000 Dow level. That type of percentage gain should not occur again for many years.
Written by canam on 2008-12-08 15:16 in Analyst Articles